A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
